STATISTICAL EXPERT CONCLUDES THE SECRETARY OF STATE HAS NOT SHOWN AN OBJECTIVELY VALID BASIS TO CERTIFY THE I-1000 PETITION

STATISTICAL EXPERT CONCLUDES THE SECRETARY OF STATE HAS NOT SHOWN AN OBJECTIVELY VALID BASIS TO CERTIFY THE I-1000 PETITION.

统计专家结论:州务卿缺乏客观有效的依据认证I-1000。

 

“When we learned that the SoS (Secretary of State) did not resample when they removed additional petition sheets, we knew they did not follow proper procedure.” Said Mr. Kan Qiu, who, along with two other plaintiffs, filed a lawsuit challenging the SoS’s decision to certify I-1000 in February. “The SoS may sample as few as 3% of the signatures, and project the likely results from analysis of that subset, but only in accordance with WAC 434-379-010. And Dr. Huber’s report demonstrates that the SoS failed to comply with the WAC requirement. As a result, the SoS’s projection of the likely results is not statistically reliable.” Mr. Qiu continued.

"当我们获悉州务卿在移除更多的违规请愿书时没有重新抽样, 我们就知道他们没有遵循正当程序" ,邱侃先生说道。邱先生在今年2月与另外两名原告一起就州务卿对 I-1000 的签名认证决定提起诉讼。" 州务卿可以只对3% 的签名进行抽样检验, 并通过对抽样子集的分析来预测签名总体的可能结果, 但只可以依据 WAC 434-379-010而行。然而Huber 博士的报告表明, 州务卿并没有遵守WAC上的要求。因此, 州务卿对签名总体结果的预测在统计上并不可靠,”邱先生继续说道。

The plaintiffs’ legal team hired Dr. William Huber, who earned a PhD in mathematics from Columbia University and holds a current PStat Certification (“Professional Statistician”) from the American Statistical Association, to comb through the SoS’s Public Records data. In his report, Dr. Huber states “the SoS did not carry out an ‘unrestricted random sample’ as required by the regulations (WAC 434-379-010)” and “the ‘protection against misrepresentation of the population’ [Snedecor and Cochran] afforded by an unrestricted random sample has not been achieved. Therefore, the SoS has not shown an objectively valid basis to certify the I-1000 petition.”

原告的法律团队聘请了William Huber博士对州务卿公开的记录数据进行了梳理。 Huber博士在哥伦比亚大学获得数学博士学位, 并持有美国统计协会颁发的 PStat 认证 ("专业统计师")。Huber 博士在他的报告中指出, "州务卿没有按照法律条例(WAC 434-379-010)的要求进行‘不受限制的随机抽样 ’,而 “通过不受限制的随机抽样来‘保障总体不被歪曲’ [Snedecor 和 Cochran]就达不到。因此, 州务卿缺乏客观有效的依据认证I-1000”。

“The inconsistent handling of I-1000 petitions has given the SoS a difficult task with little margin for error. Unforeseen issues such as: two different versions of petition sheets in circulation; sticker-covered petition sheets; a signature gatherer who is under investigation by the Washington State Patrol for signature fraud; wet sheets that had to be dried out, etc. all contributed to shortcomings and errors in the SoS’s treatment of I-1000 signature petitions.” Mr. Qiu said. “We are asking the court to issue a citation requiring the SoS to submit the petitions to the court for examination.”

"I-1000 请愿表本身不一致让州务卿很难没有失误。一些不可预见的问题, 例如: 收集签名中有两个不同版本的请愿书; 有贴纸的请愿书; 一名签名收集者正被华州巡警因签名造假而接受调查;湿的请愿书,需要被晾干” 邱先生说,“我们向法庭请求发传唤令,要求州务卿把请愿签名表递交法院全面检验”

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